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NFL picks - relevancy of passing yards


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Most folks are typically betting on a good passing teams, with good quarterback, when putting money on pro football.

Does it have a valuable effect on game resolution, or it does not?

I'm gonna start widely with this research, looking at teams which have averagely more yards from passing plays than their current opposition.

Outcome is 49,1% win vs spread.

So they are mistaken, you might say. I don't think they are wrong on which team is better. Because these teams are favorites more times than not. Occasional bettors don't understand the math of betting and what it takes to make good NFL picks. One should always match teams vs spread, not just vs. other team. More than 70% of amateur bettors put money on favorites.

What if better passing team is by at least 50 yards better on avg. Gets somewhat worse - they are 48,6 ATS. You get similar outcome if you take a look at teams offensive and defensive passing yardage. Those teams which pass more than they allow passing yards, are not covering well likewise .

And what if we mix those two components together? Here is what happens.

1. Team has bigger offensive yardage that defensive and passes more yards the their opponent - 48,4% ATS on big sample.

2. identical as above, but with minimum 50 yards difference this time - 46,7 % ATS.

Here is the point: don't trust much passing capability, it has impact on line movement. Better passing teams apparently have much money from amateur handicappers. This is very expected and known fact by pro handicappers so you better watch out for these. This is one of the reason why some people say there is “trap" set from bookmakers. Its not a trap, they just go with public opinion on certain teams.

And how about good defensive squads that don't allow many passes? We might have something here. Teams allowing less passing yards than opponent are 50,8% against the spread. Appears like we got it. And the final word on NFL picks is?

Occasional bettors like to put money on teams with quarterbacks throwing a lot passes. It looks good, and makes Occasional bettorsbelieve they put money on sure thing, when they have to bet the other way.

Tom P. is football expert, on Toples Totals website, which deals with NFL expert picks .


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