Of all the major sports, obtaining Free MLB Picks is the most dangerous. I say this primarily based on the motives of handicappers that offer free picks. Let’s face it; giving away free picks is not going to put food on anybody’s table. A handicapper’s purpose of offering free picks is to get you purchase their service.
How willing would you be to purchase a handicapper’s service if they lost 3 or 4 free picks in a row? Not very. Knowing this, handicappers choose free picks that have the highest probability of winning with no focus on the long-term value of the pick.
Value is found in MLB baseball odds when the probability of a team winning is higher than the break-even percentage based on the odds. For example, you would have to win 52.3% of the time when betting consistently on -110 teams in football and basketball. Value only exists if a -110 team’s probability of winning is greater than 52.3%.
As you can see, many Free MLB Picks choose the heavy favorites of around -200 because they know that those picks will have approximately 66.6% chance of winning, even though they should be trying to pick small dogs that have a strong chance to win. In doing so, handicappers risk having long losing streaks and losing customers so therefore avoid it.
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