To the best of my knowledge, no one has ever figured out a truly accurate way to figure out future turning points. As far as I know, it has never been done. I don't believe that it will ever be done.
I have encountered traders who have told me that so-and-so does it, but I have never seen the proof. Nevertheless, I’m willing to listen. I used to live in the “show-me” State of Missouri, so show me!
When it comes to the future, I believe that man has no absolutes. The best he can do is to determine statistically the probabilities of the occurrence of an event. But statistics are not sufficiently exact for trading without a complimentary management system that takes into account the aberrations that are bound to occur. I mentioned a few of those in previous newsletters. Here are a few more: What do you do about flood, drought, pest invasions, earthquakes, hurricanes, ice storms, tornados, volcanic eruptions, revolutions, and other phenomenon that all can push prices and market action to the extreme limits of the bell curve? What do you do when farmers decide to hold back their crops, or ranchers decide to hold over their livestock for higher prices? That's where management comes into play. However, even the best management cannot compensate for bad fills caused by crooked players, slow turnaround, bad data, fast market conditions, illiquidity, electronic failures, system failures, poor back office accounting, or a bunch of crazies flying airplanes into the former World Trade Center.
As long as you chase the idea of perfecting your trading along the lines of predicting what will happen, you are consigning yourself to failure. The best you can do is to manage your trading along the lines of what is likely to happen, and then make your best effort from there, using your human brain and your human intuition. Those are really all we have to work with.
Trading Educators Inc
Joe Ross has been trading for more than 47 years, and is a well known Master Trader. He has survived all the up and downs of the markets because of his adaptable trading style, using a low-risk approach that produces consistent profits.
Joe is the creator of the Ross hook, and has set new standards for low-risk trading with his concept of “The Law of Charts™. " Joe was a private trader for most of his life. In the mid 80's he shift his focus and decided to share his knowledge. After his recovery, he founded Trading Educators in 1988 to teach aspiring traders how to make profits using his trading approach. He has written 12 major books on trading. All of them have become classics and have been translated into many different languages.
Joe holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration from the University of California at Los Angeles. He did his Masters work in Computer Sciences at the George Washington University extension in Norfolk, VA. Joe still tutors, teaches, writes, and trades regularly. Joe is still an active and integral part of Trading Educators.