Before betting the Sunday’s AFC Divisional Playoff matchup between the New England Patriots and the San Diego Chargers, there are some things you should consider. Of course you know about Belichick’s postseason success and Brady’s playoff record, and Schottenheimer’s lack of success and Rivers’ lack of playoff experience. But you also know that the Chargers were the most consistent team during the regular season and they come into Sunday’s matchup winners of 10 straight.
These are the things that everyone knows going into this one but consider some more intricate details of the matchup that you won’t hear about from Chris Berman on ESPN.
San Diego is a great covering team with a 31-16 ATS record in all lined games over the last three seasons with the Chargers winning by an average of 8.7ppg in these contests. So if you were to have strictly bet San Diego over the last three seasons you would be up 13.4 units. But I’m not convinced that the fact that the Chargers are a good covering team makes them our winner this week.
New England is 8-0 ATS in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in its previous game over the last three seasons winning on average by 17.9ppg. It isn’t that difficult to hold the Jets non-existent running game down. The same performance this week would not put the clamps on L. T. So despite this impressive looking trend, I’m not ready to jump on New England.
Let’s look at some Over/Under trends as well to determine if the side or total is going to be the best bet.
The Patriots are 7-0 Under after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game this season with an average score of New England 19.6 and their opponent 12.9. If this trend holds true, this game would go safely under the number by two touchdowns. However, New England’s offense has been rolling of late and the Chargers average 31.1ppg at home.
San Diego is 8-0 Over when both teams score 20 or more points in a game this season with the average score being Chargers 35 and their opponent 26. If that trend were to hold up this one would go over by 14.5 points. As good as these offenses have been, we must still consider that New England’s defense has been sensational on the road holding its opponents to just 13.5ppg and San Diego’s defense has been solid at home holding its opponents to just 16.5ppg.
These were just some good trends to be aware of before laying down on this week’s big NFL matchup, but of course Dave Price doesn’t let all of his tricks out of the bag. Dave Price has done his homework and he is ready to deliver his NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on this matchup and he has also uncovered the winning side in this matchup. You can break the bank with just one game by climbing on board with Dave Price this Sunday in the NFL Divisional Playoffs.
Dave Price is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Dave_Price.htm