Sports Betting Analysis: Tampa Bay Over Philly and Denver Over Browns

D. James
 


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Have you ever wondered how the sports betting “smart money" became the smart money? Do you wonder what the sports betting smart money does differently than the amateurs? Sports betting is half art, and half science. The following two game predictions are a little of both.

First, look at this prediction for the Philadelphia at Tampa Bay game: How good are the Eagles? Well, they lost to New Orleans, and two of their wins came against door mats San Francisco and Houston. Meanwhile, Gradkowksi has filled in well for Simms, completeing 45-75 passes. Tampa Bay has been getting progressively better each week, losing first by 27, then by 11, 2, and 3 before finally beating the Bengals. Carnell Williams might make this difference for the Bucs in this game just by making the Eagles defense play honest, which will give Gradkowski some extra time in the pocket.

Here are some interesting stats. . . TB is on an 11-3 ATS run when playing their 2nd of two consecutive home games. They've also gone 28-15 ATS as a non-division home team, and are on a 13-2 ATS run as a home dog. All in all, it's very hard to pass up TB getting 4 1/2 points at home against an Eagles team that hasn't been all that impressive. The percentages and the smart money says to go with the home dog Bucs +4 1/2, maybe even winning outright, 21-20.

Here the analysis was almost all science. The Bucs had the historical data in their favor. With the way Philly has been playing poorly lately, picking the Bucs for the upset seemed obvious. We predicted the score would be 21-20, and the actual score was 23-21. Not bad.

<>Now take a look at the other game, Denver at Cleveland. Here is our pre-game analysis:

<>Why is this game only -4 1/2? Because the game is in Cleveland? If this game were in Denver, the line would be -10 to -12. The Broncos defense has given up only 19 points in their last 4 games! Cleveland stinks on offense. They might not be able to score more than 10 points against Ohio St. If it wasn't for the Raiders, who almost beat them, Cleveland would be the laughing stock of the NFL.

<>How bad is Cleveland? Well for starters they're only 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games against winning teams. Not only do they lose when they're supposed to lose, they lose big. Denver on the other hand is 13-5 ATS against non-division opponents.

<>Hey, wait a minute. Why am I going through all these stats and making this more complicated than it really is?? Denver is a Super Bowl contender. Cleveland stinks. The high percentage play says to go with the far superior team that's only laying 4 1/2 against a team that might not score in this game. Look for Denver to dominate the Browns offense, and score just enough to keep the game comfortably out of reach, 16-6. This game was more “art" to predict. Simply put, Denver's defense has been smothering teams, and Cleveland's offense has been almost non-existent.

<>That led to a simple pick that was within one point on both teams. We predicted 16-6, and the final was 17-7. Who said sports betting was difficult?

David James is one of the world's foremost sports handicappers. Not only does James have an uncanny knack for knowing who to bet on, but he also is one of the best at providing in depth explanations and statistics showing exactly why each pick meets his criteria. Click on this link if you would like to learn how to be successful at Sports Betting

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