Home Field Advantage in the MLB (Part 3)


Visitors: 325

In one of our earlier articles, we demonstrated how the home field advantage was stronger in the first game of a series and qualified that by explaining how the opposing team has to travel to a visitor’s stadium and may struggle in the first game.

I wanted to apply a few handicapping principles that we generally apply to the NBA such as the betting against a team on zero-days rest angle.

Home teams in the first game of a series are 54.4% winners if their opponent is playing back-to-back days but only 52.8% if their opponent has had 1 or more days rest. This is a significant advantage that is averaged over approximately 5000 games.

If we condition this fact on our team not having to travel because its previous game was at home, the percentage increases to 975-801, 54.9%. In fact, blindly betting home teams in this situation is +26 units over the past 6 years. Because of the large number of games in baseball, even simple angles such as these do not get factored into the spread as they should.

As my “2005 YTD Home Favorite Money Line Records" piece suggested, home teams perform much better against non-divisional rivals than against divisional rivals. Utilizing that knowledge, we improve this system to 55.6%, +39 units.

American League favorites that fall into this system are 226-113 (66.7%), +56 units over the past 6 seasons with no losing seasons. Even though this is coincidental

Chat about all sorts of sports information at the Sports Wagering Forums .

By Proloy Bhattacharyya


Article Source:

Rate this Article:  0.0/5(0 Ratings)

Related Articles:

Home Field Advantage in the MLB: Interleague Games (Part 4)

by: Proloy Bhattacharyya (September 12, 2005) 
(Recreation and Sports)

Home Field Advantage in the MLB (Part 2): Tale of Two Halves

by: Proloy Bhattacharyya (September 12, 2005) 
(Recreation and Sports)

Should the All-Star Game Determine Home Field Advantage?

by: Nishan Wilde (July 26, 2007) 
(Recreation and Sports/Baseball)

Hart and Field Printed Their Signatures in the MLB

by: Ally White (June 26, 2008) 
(Recreation and Sports/Baseball)

Taking Advantage of a Friendship in the Field of Play

by: Evan Pfaff (December 10, 2008) 
(Recreation and Sports)

The Added Advantage in African American Children's Education - Computer Home ..

by: Daviyd Peterson (March 30, 2005) 
(Reference and Education/Home Schooling)

Frauds in the Metaphysical Field Part 1

by: Leonard Lee (October 15, 2006) 
(Self Improvement)

MLB: What Part Of "No (Trade Clause)" Don't You Understand?

by: John Onan (July 26, 2005) 
(Recreation and Sports)

Unmasking The Business Phantom Part V - Playing Field For The Outcast

by: Bernard Borgonos (November 10, 2007) 
(Business/Workplace Communication)

Social Networking Websites - A Fair Playing Field For All? Part 2 Of 2

by: Dr Peter J D Scott (February 07, 2008) 
(Internet and Businesses Online/Social Networking)